Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://hdl.handle.net/2440/102306
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Type: | Journal article |
Title: | Timing the Market with a Combination of Moving Averages |
Author: | Glabadanidis, P. |
Citation: | International Review of Finance, 2017; 17(3):353-394 |
Publisher: | John Wiley and Sons |
Issue Date: | 2017 |
ISSN: | 1468-2443 1468-2443 |
Statement of Responsibility: | Paskalis Glabadanidis |
Abstract: | A combination of simple moving average trading strategies with several window lengths delivers a greater average return and skewness as well as a lower variance and kurtosis compared with buying and holding the underlying asset using daily returns of value-weighted US decile portfolios sorted by market size, book-to-market, momentum, and standard deviation as well as more than 1000 individual US stocks. The combination moving average (CMA) strategy generates risk-adjusted returns of 2% to 16% per year before transaction costs. The performance of the CMA strategy is driven largely by the volatility of stock returns and resembles the payoffs of an at-the-money protective put on the underlying buy-and-hold return. Conditional factor models with macroeconomic variables, especially the market dividend yield, short-term interest rates, and market conditions, can explain some of the abnormal returns. Standard market timing tests reveal ample evidence regarding the timing ability of the CMA strategy. |
Description: | First published 10 October 2016 |
Rights: | © 2016 International Review of Finance Ltd. 2016 |
DOI: | 10.1111/irfi.12107 |
Published version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/irfi.12107 |
Appears in Collections: | Aurora harvest 3 Business School publications |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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hdl_102306.pdf | Accepted version | 1.52 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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