Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://hdl.handle.net/2440/105309
Type: | Conference paper |
Title: | Predicting overprecision in range estimation |
Author: | Kaesler, M. Welsh, M. Semmler, C. |
Citation: | Proceedings of the 38th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society, 2016 / Papafragou, A., Grodner, D., Mirman, D., Trueswell, J. (ed./s), vol.B, pp.502-507 |
Publisher: | Cognitive Science Society |
Publisher Place: | Online |
Issue Date: | 2016 |
ISBN: | 9780991196739 |
Conference Name: | The 38th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (COGSCI) (10 Aug 2016 - 13 Aug 2016 : Philadelphia, USA) |
Editor: | Papafragou, A. Grodner, D. Mirman, D. Trueswell, J. |
Statement of Responsibility: | Matthew Kaesler, Matthew B. Welsh, Carolyn Semmler |
Abstract: | Overprecision (overconfidence in interval estimation) is a bias with clear implications for economic outcomes in industries reliant on forecasting possible ranges for future prices and unknown states of nature - such as mineral and petroleum exploration. Prior research has shown the ranges people provide are too narrow given the knowledge they have – that is, they underestimate uncertainty and are overconfident in their knowledge. The underlying causes of this bias are, however, still unclear and individual differences research has shed little light on traits predictive of susceptibility. Taking this as a starting point, this paper directly contrasts the Naïve Sampling Model and Informativeness-Accuracy Tradeoff accounts of overprecision – seeing which better predicts performance in an interval estimation task. This was achieved by identifying traits associated with these theories – Short Term Memory and Need for Cognitive Closure, respectively. Analyses indicate that NFCC but not STM predicts interval width and thus, potentially, impacts overprecision. |
Keywords: | Confidence; overprecision; need for cognitive closure; STM; informativeness; naïve sampling model. |
Description: | Theme for 2016: Recognizing and representing events |
Rights: | © the authors |
Published version: | https://mindmodeling.org/cogsci2016/papers/0098/index.html |
Appears in Collections: | Aurora harvest 3 Australian School of Petroleum publications |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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hdl_105309.pdf | Published version | 205.08 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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