Are per capita CO₂ emissions increasing among OECD countries? A test of trends and breaks

Abstract

We empirically analyse the trend characteristics of per capita CO₂ emissions in OECD countries from 1971 to 2009. We use a statistically robust procedure, which is valid regardless of whether per capita CO₂ emissions are trend stationary or contain a stochastic trend, to test for the presence of a deterministic trend and a structural break in the trend. Our results suggest that the trend in per capita CO₂ emissions shifts downward or is reversed for a number of OECD countries either after the 1970s oil shocks or during the early- to mid-2000s.