Rice mountain: assessment of the Thai rice pledging program

Abstract

The Thai Government introduced a generous price support program for paddy rice in 2011. The policy terminated in mid 2014 with the dismissal of the democratically elected Prime Minister, Ms Yingluck Shinawatra. There is an interest in understanding the welfare effects of the policy given the ongoing civil suit put against the former Prime Minister and the large stocks that remain. This study therefore analyses the welfare effects of various Thai rice policy options using a 10-region, dynamic, stochastic, partial equilibrium model of world rice trade. It finds that while the Thai policy was effective in supporting the incomes of rice producers in the short run, the burden imposed on taxpayers and consumers seems difficult to justify.