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https://hdl.handle.net/2440/112226
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Type: | Journal article |
Title: | Association between malaria incidence and meteorological factors: a multi-location study in China, 2005-2012 |
Author: | Xiang, J. Hansen, A. Liu, Q. Tong, M. Liu, X. Sun, Y. Cameron, S. Hanson-Easey, S. Han, G. Williams, C. Weinstein, P. Bi, P. |
Citation: | Epidemiology and Infection, 2018; 146(1):89-99 |
Publisher: | Cambridge University Press |
Issue Date: | 2018 |
ISSN: | 0950-2688 1469-4409 |
Statement of Responsibility: | J. Xiang, A. Hansen, Q. Liu, M. X. Tong, X. Liu, Y. Sun, S. Cameron, S. Hanson-Easey, G. S. Han, C. Williams, P. Weinstein and P. Bi |
Abstract: | This study aims to investigate the climate-malaria associations in nine cities selected from malaria high-risk areas in China. Daily reports of malaria cases in Anhui, Henan, and Yunnan Provinces for 2005-2012 were obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Generalized estimating equation models were used to quantify the city-specific climate-malaria associations. Multivariate random-effects meta-regression analyses were used to pool the city-specific effects. An inverted-U-shaped curve relationship was observed between temperatures, average relative humidity, and malaria. A 1 °C increase of maximum temperature (T max) resulted in 6·7% (95% CI 4·6-8·8%) to 15·8% (95% CI 14·1-17·4%) increase of malaria, with corresponding lags ranging from 7 to 45 days. For minimum temperature (T min), the effect estimates peaked at lag 0 to 40 days, ranging from 5·3% (95% CI 4·4-6·2%) to 17·9% (95% CI 15·6-20·1%). Malaria is more sensitive to T min in cool climates and T max in warm climates. The duration of lag effect in a cool climate zone is longer than that in a warm climate zone. Lagged effects did not vanish after an epidemic season but waned gradually in the following 2-3 warm seasons. A warming climate may potentially increase the risk of malaria resurgence in China. |
Keywords: | Climate change malaria mosquito temperature weather |
Rights: | © Cambridge University Press 2017 |
DOI: | 10.1017/s0950268817002254 |
Published version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0950268817002254 |
Appears in Collections: | Aurora harvest 3 Public Health publications |
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