An ecological climate change classification for South Australia

Abstract

Temperatures in South Australia have risen 0.5–1.5°C post-1950, a trend expected to drive ecological change. However, climate sensitivity, landscape resilience and management priorities vary among regions. We classified the vulnerability of South Australian plant assemblages to climate change in a framework that combines climate sensitivity and resilience. Generalised Dissimilarity Models (GDMs) of plant species composition were trained with species occurrence records from field plots. Resilience was represented by the proportional remnancy of native vegetation surrounding each location. Landscapes were classified using bivariate quantiles. Mean annual rainfall, summer maximum temperatures and spatial structure were important predictors of species turnover. GDMs (explaining 37–68% of deviance) were projected onto future climate scenarios to calculate sensitivity metrics. The Wheat Belt, mallee and Flinders Ranges were the most sensitive, representing a climatic transition characterised by rapid change in species assemblages. Southern Eyre Peninsula and western Kangaroo Island were classified as Resilient; the Mount Lofty Ranges, southern Flinders Ranges and eastern Kangaroo Island as Resistant; northern Eyre Peninsula and northern Flinders Ranges as Sensitive; and the Wheat Belt as Susceptible. The classification assists decisions on management priority and provenances or species selection for restoration and assisted migration in conjunction with other biodiversity measures.