Clean. Reliable. Affordable. The role of nuclear technology in meeting the challenge of low greenhouse gas electricity supply in the 21st century

Abstract

Climate change is broadly acknowledged as one of the greatest challenges facing humankind this century. The emission of greenhouse gases from human activity is driving warming of the atmosphere. The extent of the forecast warming has the potential to seriously and irreversibly alter global environments, with consequently serious impacts for humankind in our occupation of this planet. The energy sector is one of the largest sources of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, being based nearly entirely on the combustion of fossil-carbon fuels, including for the generation of electricity. This energy consumption raises standards of living and is central to the development processes that alleviate poverty and reduce population growth rates. Non-fossil options for the generation of electricity include renewable energy sources (covering hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, wave, ocean, tidal and biomass) and nuclear fission in power-generating nuclear reactors. While nuclear power, along with hydroelectricity, has historically proven to be an effective and scalable replacement for fossil fuels in electricity generation, this technology lacks broad support, is actively opposed by the great majority of environmental groups and has grown little in recent decades. The exclusive use of non-hydro renewable technologies to generate electricity lacks historic evidence of scalability and cost-effectiveness, however these technologies enjoy popular support and the amount of electricity they supply is growing rapidly. This thesis examines how to provide electricity supply that is free from fossil carbon fuels at relevant global scale in the 21st century by examining the benefits and drawbacks of both nuclear and renewable technologies and considering their potential role in forming workable, cost-effective portfolios of solutions. I examine in detail the rapid transition towards wind and solar power in South Australia (Chapter 1), and critically review literature purporting to provide evidence that only renewable technologies are required for reliable, cost effective, clean electricity supply (Chapter 2). I undertake modelling of Australia’s National Electricity Market using varying combinations of nuclear and renewable technologies to identify cost-optimal supply combinations at varying carbon prices (Chapter 3), and re-model the potential for nuclear to meet a supply gap that is greatly modified by the uptake of variable renewable generation (Chapter 4). The potential role of advanced nuclear technologies is examined in a business case for storing used nuclear fuel and re-investing revenue in the development of fuel recycling facilities and advanced reactors (Chapter 5). I demonstrate that nuclear technology is an essential solution for the challenge of displacing fossil fuels from electricity supply, and that this role is robust against a range of assumptions and projections relating to greater use of renewable technologies. I conclude with a brief consideration of the little-studied challenge of providing industrial heat including to manufacture chemical feedstocks, a segment of energy consumption where advanced, high-temperature nuclear reactors may have a nearly unfettered role in the displacement of fossil fuels.