Reviewing the treatment of uncertainty in hydro-economic modeling of the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

Abstract

Hydro-economic modeling is the combination of economic principles and hydrological modeling to achieve a more integrated representation of water resource management. In the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB), hydro-economic modeling has been widely used to analyze and inform basin-wide water policy. A growing but uneven literature base has prompted this review of MDB hydro-economic studies published over the past three decades to identify innovations and avenues for advancement. We focus particularly on the treatment of uncertainty, which is inherent in all modeling. While consideration of uncertainty is increasing in prominence, our review indicates the robust treatment of epistemic and stochastic uncertainty have not been fully integrated in the hydro-economic modeling literature. When hydro-economic modeling results are used to inform policy, treatment of uncertainty has both technical and political implications. We conclude that the methodological rigor of MDB hydro-economic modeling can be vastly improved with greater attention to quantifying, reducing and communicating uncertainties inherent in the modeling of water resources.