Does anything predict anchoring bias?

Abstract

Anchoring – the tendency for recently seen numbers to affect estimates – is a robust bias affecting expert and novice judgements across many fields. An anchoring task, in which people (N=301) estimated the number of circles in 10 stimulus figures after comparison to an anchoring value, was conducted within a larger study including numerous intelligence, personality, decision style and attention measures. Individual anchoring susceptibility was calculated and compared to potential predictor variables. Two of eight broad ability measures (from Catell-Horn-Carroll intelligence theory) correlated weakly but significantly with anchoring (Gq = 0.16, Gf = 0.12). No decision style or attention measures correlated significantly with anchoring, nor did the Big 5 personality traits, directly. Indirectly, however, as the anchoring task continued and fatigue increased, people relied more on anchors and higher neuroticism may have increased this tendency. Overall, results suggest our ability to predict anchoring is poor and implications of this are discussed.