Risk communication in genetic counselling - A discursive approach to probability

Abstract

This paper argues for and demonstrates a language-based treatment of probability. The study was motivated by an observation that there is ambiguity in the use of probabilistic terminology in risk communication in genetic counselling. In particular, it was found that terms such as ‘risk’ and ‘probability’ were founded upon different ontological constructs. Most philosophical approaches to probability do not adequately explain this phenomenon. In spite of much variation in theoretical views on probability, one common element is that probability is viewed as an ‘object’ about which knowledge can be obtained. In contrast, a discursive approach to probability offers a way to understand risk communication (and probabilistic discourse more generally) that involves a focus on the function of probability statements in language. In this paper Toulmin's view of probability is used as a foundation for a discursive analysis of probability. Such an analysis is illustrated in transcripts from genetic counselling sessions.