The influence of urban land-use on non-motorised transport casualties

Abstract

The relationship between non-motorised road traffic casualties and land-use was investigated in two zones of approximately 8 km2 in Newcastle upon Tyne, England. Road traffic accidents are, more usually, analysed in relation to traffic flow, on the assumption that the latter can be derived from land-use data. Here, a direct relationship between primary functional land-use and non-motorised casualties is estimated. We review past work in this area. A shortcoming of casualty data is that it does not record the origin and destination of the journeys being undertaken when the accident occurred. A method was established to identify zones within which most accidents could reasonably be expected to be related to the land-uses within that zone. Generalised linear models were developed using non-motorised casualties as the response variable, with primary functional land-use, population density and junction density as explanatory variables. Separate models were constructed for each combination of cyclists and pedestrians, adults and children, working and non-working hours in city centre and suburban analysis zones. In general, the study found that pedestrian casualties in the city centre zone are particularly associated with an increase in retail and community land-use during working hours. In the city centre zone, out of working hours, an increase in retail land-use (almost certainly clubs and bars) is also associated with an increase in pedestrian casualties. An increase in cyclist casualties during working hours (in the non-pedestrianised area) is associated with an increase in retail land-use.