Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://hdl.handle.net/2440/36834
Citations | ||
Scopus | Web of Science® | Altmetric |
---|---|---|
?
|
?
|
Type: | Journal article |
Title: | Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement |
Author: | McCarthy, M. Keith, D. Tietjen, J. Burgman, M. Maunder, M. Master, L. Brook, B. Mace, G. Possingham, H. Medellin, R. Andelman, S. Regan, H. Regan, T. Ruckelshaus, M. |
Citation: | Acta Oecologica, 2004; 26(2):67-74 |
Publisher: | Gauthier-Villars/Editions Elsevier |
Issue Date: | 2004 |
ISSN: | 1146-609X 1873-6238 |
Statement of Responsibility: | Michael A. McCarthy, David Keith, Justine Tietjen, Mark A. Burgman, Mark Maunder, Larry Master, Barry W. Brook, Georgina Mace, Hugh P. Possingham, Rodrigo Medellin, Sandy Andelman, Helen Regan, Tracey Regan and Mary Ruckelshaus |
Abstract: | Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. © 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved. |
Keywords: | Extinction Population dynamics Population viability analysis Risk assessment Stochasticity Subjective judgement |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.actao.2004.01.008 |
Description (link): | http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600781/description#description |
Published version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.actao.2004.01.008 |
Appears in Collections: | Aurora harvest 6 Earth and Environmental Sciences publications Environment Institute Leaders publications |
Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.