Sourcing forecast knowledge through argumentative inquiry

Abstract

This paper describes a process for nominating and assessing potential actions in group meetings. It is probably useful in many other applications including as input to a forecast. The authors were concerned on how the ancient and well-tried technique of argumentative inquiry might be applied in such meetings. The traditional form of argumentation, the courtroom or debating society, was thought too confrontational, yet other attributes of argumentative inquiry were thought to be attractive. These include the use of dialectic perspectives coupled with competition. The application described illustrates the use of the argumentative process in the design and selection of radio programs for estimating demand for an ex-government-controlled radio network in Indonesia as it emerged into democracy. A series of group meetings applied an inverted form of facilitated argument whereby depersonalized statements were debated on. This paper argues that, correctly applied, the argumentative inquiry approach provides reliability, helps inform those participating in the exercises, and is sensitive to a variety of viewpoints.