Investment timing under regime switching

Abstract

<jats:p>We investigate the optimal investment timing strategy in a real option framework. Depending on the state of the economy, whose changes are modeled by a Markov chain, the investment cost can take one of two values. The optimal investment timing decision is determined by finding the free boundary of a perpetual American option. Three investment timing policies, based on different assumptions of investors' information sets, are determined and compared. In the full information case, a significantly earlier optimal exercising time is indicated. We show that an optimal-timing policy suggested by the conventional real option model might ruin the investment opportunities.</jats:p>