Investigations of the I Ching: II. Reliability and validity studies

Abstract

In six studies on the I Ching - an ancient Chinese system of divination - successful predictions of first- and second-hexagrams (i.e., hexagram hitting) based on pre-selections of corresponding descriptor-pairs have ranged from chance, to significantly above chance. No significant effect below chance has ever been found. Hexagram hitting has been predicted by measures such as paranormal belief, time perspective, and meaningfulness. Storm (2008a) found a near-significant aggregate hexagram hit rate of 27%. Though these results are encouraging, there has been no assessment of the reliability and validity of the main test instrument used in the I Ching studies, the Hexagram Descriptor Form (HDF). To test the validity of the HDF, three control methods were tested against the experimental method. Taking first- and second-hexagram hit rates together, three out of 22 tests on the experimental method (14%) were significant or near-significant. Three significant or near-significant outcomes out of 66 control tests (4.5%) were attributed to chance. Inter-rater reliability was tested using two I Ching experts who judged the 64 descriptor-pairs of the HDF for suitability against their corresponding hexagram readings. The correlation between judges' ratings was not significant (the mean rating ranged between 60% and 82%). Using the pooled data of six studies, the HDF was tested for possible selection and outcome biases. A selection bias was found, but no outcome biases were found. The I Ching and the HDF were considered suitable for parapsychological research.