Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://hdl.handle.net/2440/64270
Type: | Conference paper |
Title: | In what sense is P(A/B) P(B) = P(A,B)? The relationship between distributional format and subjective probability estimates |
Author: | Bruza, B. Welsh, M. Navarro, D. Begg, S. |
Citation: | Proceedings of the 32nd Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society Portland, Oregon, August 11-14, 2010 / S. Ohlsson and R. Catrambone (eds.): pp. 1792-1797 |
Publisher: | Cognitive Science Society |
Publisher Place: | www |
Issue Date: | 2010 |
ISBN: | 1617388904 9781617388903 |
Conference Name: | Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (32nd : 2010 : Portland, Oregon) |
Editor: | Ohlsson, S. Catrambone, R. |
Statement of Responsibility: | Belinda Bruza, Matthew B. Welsh, Daniel J. Navarro and Stephen H. Begg |
Abstract: | The elicitation of uncertainty is a topic of interest in a range of disciplines. The conversion of expert beliefs into probability distributions can play a role in assisting key decisions in industry. However, elicitation methods can be prone to bias. In this paper we investigate the effect of changing the presentation of stimulus information and question format on elicited judgments of marginal, conditional and joint probabilities. Participants taught a probability distribution in one structure were expected to have difficulty assessing the distribution in another structure. While this pattern was not found, it turned out that training participants on the more difficult task (learning from a conditional structure) improved overall performance. |
Keywords: | Decision making; cognitive biases; elicitation; probability learning |
Rights: | © the authors |
Grant ID: | DP0773794 |
Appears in Collections: | Aurora harvest Australian School of Petroleum publications |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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hdl_64270.pdf | Published version | 153.92 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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