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https://hdl.handle.net/2440/65960
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Type: | Journal article |
Title: | Modelling population processes with random initial conditions |
Author: | Pollett, P. Dooley, A. Ross, J. |
Citation: | Mathematical Biosciences, 2010; 223(2):142-150 |
Publisher: | Elsevier Science Inc |
Issue Date: | 2010 |
ISSN: | 0025-5564 1879-3134 |
Statement of Responsibility: | P.K. Pollett, A.H. Dooley, J.V. Ross |
Abstract: | Population dynamics are almost inevitably associated with two predominant sources of variation: the first, demographic variability, a consequence of chance in progenitive and deleterious events; the second, initial state uncertainty, a consequence of partial observability and reporting delays and errors. Here we outline a general method for incorporating random initial conditions in population models where a deterministic model is sufficient to describe the dynamics of the population. Additionally, we show that for a large class of stochastic models the overall variation is the sum of variation due to random initial conditions and variation due to random dynamics, and thus we are able to quantify the variation not accounted for when random dynamics are ignored. Our results are illustrated with reference to both simulated and real data. |
Keywords: | Population processes Epidemic models Stochastic models |
Rights: | © 2009 Elsevier Inc. |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.mbs.2009.11.008 |
Published version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2009.11.008 |
Appears in Collections: | Aurora harvest 5 Mathematical Sciences publications |
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