Climate change and food security to 2030: a global economy-wide perspective

Abstract

The effects of climate change on agriculture raise major food security concerns. We use aglobal economy-wide model to assess the effects on farm product prices of expected yield changes. Alsomodelled is an expected adverse effect of higher temperatures and humidity in the tropics on the productivityof unskilled workers in developing countries. Given the degrees of uncertainty about plausibleeffects of climate change, our modelling accounts for a range of yield productivity and labor shocks. Theresults entail consequences for international agricultural prices, national food consumption, self sufficiency,net farm income and economic welfare.