Calibration strategy for phytoplankton dynamic succession models

Abstract

An accurate description of the relationships between physical environment and ecological conditions, and reliability in reproducing phytoplankton succession structure, are central topics in water quality modeling. In this article a new calibration strategy is proposed for a dynamic ecological model, that differentiates five phytoplankton groups. Sensitivity analysis and global automatic calibration algorithms are successfully applied to the deterministic, highly parameterized model to solve over parameterization and reduce time of calibration. Model results reproduce the seasonal evolution of most of the algal groups considered in simulation. Partial model results that deviate from observations were related to the level of information introduced in the calibration procedure. Through the applied method it is possible to decrease the number of parameters to calibrate without simplifying variable relationships or reducing number of phytoplankton groups. Model structure and nature of observations adopted should be strictly in accordance with the level of organization experienced in the system.