Can industrial restructuring lead to a sustainable future? A critical environmental risk assessment of industrial policy in Shandong Province, China

Abstract

Shandong Province is attempting to realize a sustainable development path by industrial restructuring. This article attempts to forecast the outcomes of this policy, looking ahead to 2010 and 2020 by quantifying its resource demand and environmental effects. Prediction and analysis indicate that the industrial restructuring policy of Shandong Province is likely to prove beneficial to the environment, reducing energy and water consumption from the 2004 baseline. However, the analysis also indicates that the high anticipated economic growth rates will override any resource saving and pollutants reduction achieved. Natural resource supplies are insufficient to meet demand, and environmental quality is likely to deteriorate, rendering economic growth targets unachievable. However, if Shandong puts in place policies designed to achieve average energy and water consumption efficiency, SO2 emission efficiency and wastewater treatment efficiency of OECD countries in 2004, then energy consumption, SO2 emissions, wastewater, and Chemical Oxygen Demand discharges in 2020 will reduce in real terms with only water demand showing a slight increase over the 2004 baseline. The assessment suggests that further measures such as developing new and alternative energy sources, raising the utilization efficiency of energy and water resources, and improving pollution treatment are required if Shandong Province is to realize a balanced and sustainable development for its society, economy, and environment.