Complex systems thinking: an integral feature of disaster preparedness for unexpected interdependent risks

Abstract

Recent disasters have shown a level of complexity and interconnectedness that are increasingly beyond the capability of current disaster management practices. This study advocates the need for disaster preparedness strategies to go beyond linear risk management approaches to also address systemic risks. Linear thinking has proved adequate to deal with risks that can be identified a priori. However, the uncertainty increasingly posed by natural and human-made disasters arises from both known risks and a range of unforeseeable risks, some of which have not been observed before. These interconnected risks unfold over short periods of time and interact with each other. In a network of multiple causes and effects, such risks may not be foreseeable at the disaster preparedness level, and may only be identified at the time of disaster response. The resulting higher level of complexity requires the integration of new thinking and decision-making at the disaster preparedness level. Using complex system thinking and socio-ecological notions of resilience, this paper presents a conceptual framework to illustrate key differences between building specified and general resilience, that is, resilience to known and unknown risks. Acknowledging and planning for uncertainty allows disaster risk reduction strategies to expand beyond risk mitigation paradigms to integrate policies that take into consideration systems' thresholds for maintaining a safe operating space – so allowing better preparation for unknown risks.