Modeling global wine markets to 2018: exchange rates, taste changes, and China's import growth

Abstract

In this paper, we use a revised, expanded, and updated version of a global model first developed by Wittwer et al. (2003) to project the wine markets of its 44 countries plus seven residual country groups to 2018. Because real exchange rate (RER) changes have played a key role in the fortunes of wine market participants in some countries in recent years, we use the model to analyze their impact, first retrospectively during 2007–11 and then prospectively during the period to 2018 under two alternative sets of RERs: no change, and a halfway return to 2009 rates. In both scenarios, we assume a return to the gradual trend toward premium wines and away from nonpremium wines. The other major development expected to affect the world's wine trade is growth in China's import demand. Alternative simulations provide a range of possibilities, but even the low-growth scenario suggests that China's place in global wine markets is likely to become increasingly prominent. (JEL Classifications: C53, F11, F17, Q13).