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https://hdl.handle.net/2440/93097
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Type: | Journal article |
Title: | Meteorological variables and bacillary dysentery cases in Changsha City, China |
Author: | Gao, L. Zhang, Y. Ding, G. Liu, Q. Zhou, M. Li, X. Jiang, B. |
Citation: | American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 2014; 90(4):697-704 |
Publisher: | American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene |
Issue Date: | 2014 |
ISSN: | 0002-9637 1476-1645 |
Statement of Responsibility: | Lu Gao, Ying Zhang, Guoyong Ding, Qiyong Liu, Maigeng Zhou, Xiujun Li, and Baofa Jiang |
Abstract: | This study aimed to investigate the association between meteorological-related risk factors and bacillary dysentery in a subtropical inland Chinese area: Changsha City. The cross-correlation analysis and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) model were used to quantify the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of bacillary dysentery. Monthly mean temperature, mean relative humidity, mean air pressure, mean maximum temperature, and mean minimum temperature were significantly correlated with the number of bacillary dysentery cases with a 1-month lagged effect. The ARIMAX models suggested that a 1 ° Criseinmean temperature, mean maximum temperature, and mean minimum temperature might lead to 14.8%, 12.9%, and 15.5% increases in the incidence of bacillary dysentery disease, respectively. Temperature could be used as a forecast factor for the increase of bacillary dysentery in Changsha. More public health actions should be taken to prevent the increase of bacillary dysentery disease with consideration of local climate conditions, especially temperature. |
Keywords: | Humans Dysentery, Bacillary Incidence Multivariate Analysis Risk Factors Regression Analysis Humidity Temperature Air Pressure China Meteorological Concepts |
Rights: | © 2014 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene |
DOI: | 10.4269/ajtmh.13-0198 |
Published version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.13-0198 |
Appears in Collections: | Aurora harvest 7 Medical Sciences publications |
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