Data-driven system reliability and failure behavior modelling using FMECA

Abstract

System reliability modelling needs a large amount of data to estimate the parameters. In addition, reliability estimation is associated with uncertainty. This paper aims to propose a new method to evaluate the failure behavior and reliability of a large system using failure modes, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA). Therefore, qualitative data based on the judgment of experts is used when data is not sufficient. The subjective data of failure modes and causes has been aggregated through the system to develop an overall failure index (OFI). This index not only represents the system reliability behavior but also prioritizes corrective actions based on improvements in system failure. In addition, two optimization models are presented to select optimal actions subject to budget constraint. The associated costs of each corrective action are considered in risk evaluation. Finally, a case study of a manufacturing line is introduced to verify the applicability of the proposed method in industrial environments. The proposed method is compared with conventional FMECA approach. It is shown that the proposed method has a better performance in risk assessment. A sensitivity analysis is provided on the budget amount and the results are discussed.