Potential benefits of forward collision avoidance technology

Abstract

Main points • The simulation study detailed in this report predicts significant crash reductions with the introduction of forward collision avoidance technology (FCAT) systems. • Between 20 and 40 per cent of all fatal crashes and between 30 and 50 per cent of all injury crashes might be prevented with FCAT systems (note that these figures do not account for any unreliability in operation). • The estimates are consistent with previous studies that have suggested reductions of up to and in excess of 40 per cent. • The greatest estimated benefit is from a system that combines long and short range sensing. • Systems with expansive fields of view and that are highly reactive have a greater theoretical effect, but may suffer from the problem of false-positive responses. • A narrow field of view that reduces the chance of false-positive interventions appears to provide substantial benefit; the results of such a system were comparable to a system with a wide field of view. • Estimated benefit-cost ratios (BCR) for passenger vehicles are marginal at less than one in most instances, due to high system costs and declining per-vehicle crash rates. However, a halving of system costs would see BCRs exceed one. • Heavy vehicle BCRs are much higher: between 2.7 and 9.8. Recommendations • Encourage the uptake of FCAT systems by heavy vehicle operators and in passenger vehicle markets as soon as possible. • Liaise with industry groups such as the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries and the Truck Industry Council with a view to finding pathways for the wider-scale introduction of FCAT technologies. • In programs such as the Australasian New Car Assessment Program (ANCAP), provide substantial credit for the installation of effective FCAT systems. • Encourage the creation of performance standards for such systems, to ensure uniformly high effectiveness, and to provide a means of assessment by ANCAP. • Monitoring and evaluation of systems as they are introduced, to confirm or otherwise the benefits of the systems that have been estimated via simulation in this study and similar studies.