A refined risk stratification scheme for clinical stage 1 NSGCT based on evaluation of both embryonal predominance and lymphovascular invasion

Abstract

Background: Active surveillance is an increasingly accepted approach for managing patients with germ-cell tumors (GCTs) after an orchiectomy. Here we investigate a time-to-relapse stratification scheme for clinical stage 1 (CS1) nonseminoma GCT (NSGCT) patients according to factors associated with relapse and identify a group of patients with a lower frequency and longer time-to-relapse who may require an alternative surveillance strategy. Patients and methods: We analyzed 266 CS1 GCT patients from the IRB-approved DFCI GCT database that exclusively underwent surveillance following orchiectomy from 1997 to 2013. We stratified NSGCT patients according to predominance of embryonal carcinoma (EmbP) and lymphovascular invasion (LVI), using a 0, 1, and 2 scoring system. Cox regression and conditional risk analysis were used to compare each NSGCT group to patients in the seminomatous germ-cell tumor (SGCT) category. Median time-to-relapse values were then calculated among those patients who underwent relapse. Relapse-free survival curves were generated using the Kaplan–Meier method. Results: Fifty (37%) NSGCT and 20 (15%) SGCT patients relapsed. The median time-to-relapse was 11.5 versus 6.3 months for the SGCT and NSGCT groups, respectively. For NSGCT patients, relapse rates were higher and median timeto- relapse faster with increasing number of risk factors (RFs). Relapse rates (%) and median time-to-relapse (months) were 25%/8.5 months, 41%/6.8 months and 78%/3.8 months for RF0, RF1 and RF2, respectively. We found a statistically significant difference between SGCT and patients with one or two RFs (P < 0.001) but not between SGCT and NSGCT RF0 (P = 0.108). Conclusion: NSGCT patients grouped by a risk score system based on EmbP and LVI yielded three groups with distinct relapse patterns -and patients with neither EmbP nor LVI appear to behave similar to SGCT.