Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://hdl.handle.net/2440/133271
Citations | ||
Scopus | Web of Science® | Altmetric |
---|---|---|
?
|
?
|
Type: | Journal article |
Title: | Forecasting future global food demand: a systematic review and meta-analysis of model complexity |
Author: | Flies, E.J. Brook, B.W. Blomqvist, L. Buettel, J.C. |
Citation: | Environment International, 2018; 120:93-103 |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Issue Date: | 2018 |
ISSN: | 0160-4120 1873-6750 |
Statement of Responsibility: | Emily J.Flies, Barry W.Brook, Linus Blomqvist, Jessie C.Buettel |
Abstract: | Predicting future food demand is a critical step for formulating the agricultural, economic and conservation policies required to feed over 9 billion people by 2050 while doing minimal harm to the environment. However, published future food demand estimates range substantially, making it difficult to determine optimal policies. Here we present a systematic review of the food demand literature-including a meta-analysis of papers reporting average global food demand predictions-and test the effect of model complexity on predictions. We show that while estimates of future global kilocalorie demand have a broad range, they are not consistently dependent on model complexity or form. Indeed, time-series and simple income-based models often make similar predictions to integrated assessments (e.g., with expert opinions, future prices or climate influencing forecasts), despite having different underlying assumptions and mechanisms. However, reporting of model accuracy and uncertainty was uncommon, leading to difficulties in making evidence-based decisions about which forecasts to trust. We argue for improved model reporting and transparency to reduce this problem and improve the pace of development in this field. |
Keywords: | Food demand; prediction; model complexity; global aggregation; gross domestic product (GDP) |
Rights: | © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.envint.2018.07.019 |
Grant ID: | http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FL160100101 |
Published version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.07.019 |
Appears in Collections: | Agriculture, Food and Wine publications |
Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.