Trends in five-year survival and risk of recurrent stroke after first-ever stroke in the Perth Community Stroke Study

Abstract

<jats:p>&lt;i&gt;Background:&lt;/i&gt; Few studies provide information on trends in the long-term outcome of stroke. Weaimed to determine trends in survival and recurrent stroke, over 5 years after first-ever stroke, for 2 cohorts of patients enrolled in the Perth Community Stroke Study in 1989–90 and 1995–96. &lt;i&gt;Methods:&lt;/i&gt; For 12-month periods beginning February 1989 and February 1995, all individuals with an acute stroke who were resident in a geographically-defined and representative region of Perth, Western Australia, were registered and followed-up prospectively 5 years after the index event. &lt;i&gt;Results:&lt;/i&gt; The 5-year cumulative risk of death was 59% (95% confidence interval (CI) 53%, 65%) and 58% (95% CI 52%, 65%) for the 1989–90 and 1995–96 cohorts, respectively (p = 0.94). The 5-year cumulative risk of first recurrent stroke was 32% (95% CI 25%, 40%) and 23% (95% CI 16%, 30%) for the 1989–90 and 1995–96 cohorts, respectively (p = 0.07). &lt;i&gt;Conclusions:&lt;/i&gt; Although no statistically significant improvement occurred in 5-year survival after first-ever stroke in Perth between 1989–90 and 1995–96, there was a statistically nonsignificant trend towards a smaller cumulative risk of recurrent stroke over 5 years after a first-ever stroke. Serial community-based studies of the incidence and outcome of stroke are an important means of monitoring the translation of proven preventive interventions to improvements in population health.</jats:p>