Introduction to fundamentals and benefits of Friday 13th risk modelling technology for food manufacturers

Abstract

Friday 13th risk modelling technology is introduced and illustrated with quantitative analysis of risk and unexpected failure in two case studies: sterilisation and fermentation. Accumulation and combination of a series of indiscernible changes in otherwise well operated plant parameters can lead unexpectedly in one direction and leverage highly significant and sometimes catastrophic changes in process or product. Current risk assessments are limited to largely ineffective single value assessments plus sensitivity analyses. The benefits of applying Friday 13th risk modelling lessons to food manufacturing processes, regulatory bodies and consumers, and to the likelihood of success of targeted intervention strategies by food manufacturers, are discussed.