Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://hdl.handle.net/2440/97474
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Type: | Journal article |
Title: | Meta-analyses triggered by previous (false-)significant findings: problems and solutions |
Author: | Schuit, E. Roes, K. Mol, B. Kwee, A. Moons, K. Groenwold, R. |
Citation: | Systematic Reviews, 2015; 4(1):57-1-57-8 |
Publisher: | BioMed Central |
Issue Date: | 2015 |
ISSN: | 2046-4053 2046-4053 |
Statement of Responsibility: | Ewoud Schuit, Kit CB Roes, Ben WJ Mol, Anneke Kwee, Karel GM Moons, and Rolf HH Groenwold |
Abstract: | Meta-analyses are typically triggered by a (potentially false-significant) finding in one of the preceding primary studies. We studied consequences of meta-analysis investigating effects when primary studies that triggered such meta-analysis are also included.We analytically determined the bias of the treatment effect estimates obtained by meta-analysis, conditional on the number of included primary and false-significant studies. The type I error rate and power of the meta-analysis were assessed using simulations. We applied a method for bias-correction, by subtracting an analytically derived bias from the treatment effect estimated in meta-analysis.Bias in meta-analytical effects and type I error rates increased when increasing numbers of primary studies with false-significant effects were included. When 20% of the primary studies showed false-significant effects, the bias was 0.33 (z-score) instead of 0, and the type I error rate was 23% instead of 5%. After applying a bias-correction, the type I error rate became indeed 5%.Inclusion of primary studies with false-significant effects leads to biased effect estimates and inflated type I error rates in the meta-analysis, depending on the number of false-significant studies. This bias can be adjusted for. |
Keywords: | Meta-analysis, Bias, Type I error, Power |
Rights: | © Schuit et al.; licensee BioMed Central. 2015 This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated. |
DOI: | 10.1186/s13643-015-0048-9 |
Published version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13643-015-0048-9 |
Appears in Collections: | Aurora harvest 3 Medicine publications |
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hdl_97474.pdf | Published version | 649.1 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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